IP Convergence: Beyond VoIP, Beyond Cost Savings

The release of ”The Diverse and Exploding Digital Universe”, a report produced by IDC and sponsored by EMC, is fascinating on several levels. First, the fact that someone is trying to quantify the digital universe is an interesting and welcome exercise. Second, the extent to which the size of the digital universe is consumer generated is gratifying. Third, the extent to which enterprises exercise control over digital content is disconcerting. Fourth, the growth of your “digital shadow” as IDC calls it is more than disconcerting. And fifth, you realize after reading the report that we have not developed any coherent public policy to govern the digital universe.

To the first point, putting aside the obvious self interest EMC has in publicizing the extent of digital storage, it is a very useful exercise to capture the growth of the digital universe. Information is the key to successful management and studies such as these add to our understanding of the broader trends and dynamics taking place in the digital universe.

The second point and third points are in reaction to this statement in particular –

"While 70% or more of the digital universe is created,
captured, or replicated by individuals — consumers and
desk and information workers toiling far away from the
datacenter — enterprises, at some point in time, have
responsibility or liability for 85%."

It is great to see that individuals are the primary generators of digital content and that the production of digital content is not concentrated in the hands of the few. This makes sense since the tools required to generate digital content are much more democratic than the tools of the last century. Today someone with a computer, web camera and an iPod can create halfway decent content. Add in an actual video camera and some editing and mixing software and you can pretty much create high-quality content that used to require full-blown production studios. Now you can simply upload that content to the Internet whereas in the past you had to either be a broadcaster, publisher or movie distributor.

The scary part is that 85% of that content falls under the control of enterprises at some point. While for the most part these enterprises have refrained from exerting control over the content there have been cases where they have tried. The good news is those attempts largely failed. The bad news is they only failed because they became public and public opinion was quickly marshaled against the efforts. That is not a sustainable process in the long term and soon enough the public is going to grow tired of these spontaneous crusades.

Where things start to get scary is the notion of a “digital shadow”. As defined in the IDC report, your digital shadow consists of “digital images of you on a surveillance camera and records in banking, brokerage, retail, airline, telephone, and medical databases. It is information about Web searches and general backup data. It is copies of hospital scans. In other words, it is information about you in cyberspace. Your digital shadow, if you will.”

IDC estimates that your digital shadow comprises roughly half of your digital footprint. In other words, half of your digital footprint consists of content you created and half consists of information about you that is collected from a multitude of sources. It is this latter aspect, and particularly the ability to aggregate that information, that really scares me whether such aggregation is performed by enterprises or government.

Which brings me to my last point. There is no coherent public policy governing the generation, transfer, use, and disposal of digital information. European regulators have made some attempts in this area, most notably with the Directive 95/46/EC on the protection of personal data as well as Directive 2006/24/EC on the “retention of data generated or processed in connection with the provision of publicly available electronic communications services or of public communications networks and amending Directive 2002/58/EC.” Nothing comparable exists in the U.S. unless you count the disclosure statutes of numerous states.

What concerns me is that the approach of the U.S. government is to encourage enterprises to establish their own policies that they will enforce through the control they exert over 85% of the consumer-generated content. These policies will serve the enterprises well and give them access to a treasure-trove of personal information that they can do with largely as they please especially if they share it with law enforcement. This Administration’s efforts to collect calling data and credit card data attest to that.

But what about consumers? Don’t they have a right to this information? Indeed, don’t they have a property right in their information? In the United States we allow citizens to kill an intruder in our home. Shouldn’t we have some equivalent right (albeit less severe) for intruders into our digital “home”? What we are seeing develop is an information gap between what enterprises know about their customers versus what customers know about enterprises. A similar gap is widening between what the government knows about you and you about your government. That gap has to be closed and the quickest and most complete way to do that is to acknowledge the property interest that individuals have in their digital information. Once acknowledged, we can then begin to apply traditional property law and policies and close the information gap that is widening all too fast.

With the release of ”Networked Nation: Broadband in America 2007”, the National Telecommunications and Information Administration (“NTIA”) takes credit for largely achieving President Bush’s 2004 goal of “universal, affordable broadband access for all Americans.” Not to be too cynical, but NTIA’s claim is akin to Hank Morgan’s claim that he caused the solar eclipse in Mark Twain’s A Connecticut Yankee in King Arthur’s Court.

First, the methodology by which NTIA reaches its conclusion is spurious at best. But I shouldn’t be too harsh on NTIA since they are simply following the FCC’s methods. You see, NTIA makes it claim because “broadband service was available in 99 percent of the nation’s zip codes, encompassing 99 percent of the nation’s population.” If one person in a zip code has broadband service, the FCC counts the entire zip code as having broadband access. So by this methodology it isn’t too hard to claim success.

Second, increased broadband penetration was inevitable and would have occurred regardless of public policy. Broadband penetration occurred at a rate that surpassed all previous consumer electronics. In a September 2007 survey, Pew Internet found that broadband was adopted by a majority of consumers faster than other technologies. Broadband took 10 years to break 50% adoption, followed by the CD Player at 10.5 years, the VCR at 14 years, cell phones took 15 years, color TVs took 18 years, as did the personal computer.

So was this adoption due to Administration policy or because consumers know a good thing when they see one?

Third, this Administration considers bandwidth speeds of 200 kbs to constitute “broadband.” 200 kbs may be “Rubenesque” among narrowband speeds, but it hardly counts as broadband, especially when you consider the speeds available around the world. And when you look at actual speeds that U.S. consumers enjoy, the picture is even grimmer. The Communications Workers of America (an obviously self-interested source) produced a report last year showing the median download speed in the United States is 1.9 Mbps, compared with 61 Mbps in Japan, 45 Mbps in South Korea, 21 Mbps in Finland, 18 Mbps in Sweden, and 7.6 Mbps in Canada. And of course U.S. consumers pay far more per megabit than residents in these other countries. According to the OECD, the average price per advertised Mbit/s of connectivity in the OECD is USD $18. Japan, France, Sweden, Korea and Finland have the least expensive offers per Mbit/s
o Japan: USD $0.13
o France : USD $0.33
o Sweden: USD $0.35
o Korea: USD $0.38
o Finland: USD $0.42

So what exactly is there for this Administration to take credit for? Did their policies stimulate broadband penetration, increase broadband speeds, and reduce broadband prices or like Hank Morgan are they simply taking credit for a phenomenon that was already happening over which they had no influence?

The former company I worked for had a saying: “Don’t put all of your telecom eggs in one basket.” It was brilliant in its simplicity, but it captured a very complex and very real problem that businesses at the time faced. Fresh off the fallout of the fire in Illinois Bell’s Hinsdale switching center, companies realized that they were incredibly dependent on their telecommunications networks and that disruption to “the” network would have a catastrophic impact on their business. So companies like Teleport Communications Group (“TCG”) quickly capitalized on needs of large businesses for diversity and became “the other local phone company.” Smart businesses purchased services from both the incumbent Bell Company and TCG so that in the event either network experienced a service interruption, the other was available. This was known as “operational security.”

You would think that in the twenty years since Hinsdale operational security would be a fact of life. But as the reports of the interruption of major undersea cables serving Egypt, India and Gulf Arab countries shows, governments may not have fully grasped this. Many governments are content to continue to rely on their incumbent monopoly for their critical telecommunications needs, oblivious to the consequences of placing all of their telecom eggs in one basket until that basket gets knocked over as it did the other day.

To be fair, some of the carriers impacted by the cable cuts did have diverse routes available so service was not cut off completely. But the incidents highlight the need for governments to examine their interconnection policies from a national security and economic security perspective as much as from a telecommunications policy perspective. Security 101 teaches you that you should always have a backup. In the telecommunications world, multiple networks are most valuable the more they are interconnected. An interconnected “network of networks” is highly robust and able to withstand all but the most catastrophic events that impact a wide geography (e.g., tsunami, nuclear attack, etc.). The more interconnected networks are, the greater their robustness.

So when policy makers hear the arguments from incumbent carriers that they shouldn’t be forced to interconnect, or they should be able to charge “market” rates for interconnection, policy makers need to remind them that they are operating critical infrastructure and that interconnection is critical to national and economic security. When viewed in this light, interconnection is more than just a negotiation point between two large commercial enterprises.

2008 holds the potential to be a landmark year for telecommunications regulation – if the FCC is willing to take action on the issues before it. A quick look shows the FCC has a lot on its plate. There are the long-standing issues of inter-carrier compensation (yes this docket was initiated in April 2001 and there is still no resolution to it) and special access reform (yes this docket was initiated in October 2002 and there is still no resolution to it either). Both of these issues take on a new urgency with the competing Petitions for Forbearance filed by Feature Group IP and Embarq regarding the application of access to charges to IP services and the coming expiration of Verizon’s merger commitments on special access. Then there are the dual petitions from Vuze and Free Press on traffic management and peer-to-peer traffic that the FCC just put out on public notice. Finally, there is the Joint Board proposal on universal service reform (an issue that has been around since the 1913 Kingsbury Commitment and was supposed to be addressed immediately following passage of the Telecommunications Act of 1996).

If the FCC wanted to, it could address all of these issues in 2008 and redefine the telecommunications landscape for the next several decades. I realize that is wishful thinking and unrealistic under the best of circumstances, but at some point someone needs to recognize that the FCC regulates an industry that generates a trillion dollars in economic activity, directly employs one million people, and is responsible for deploying and operating the infrastructure that will support so much of the future global economy. Is it too much to ask for the government to address critical policy issues impacting this industry in less than ten years? Think of the costs of inaction to the economy.

At a time when so many politicians are calling for “change”, a welcome change would be for the FCC to take the action this industry so urgently needs to move forward.

This one is a beauty - on Jan. 10th of this month, the ACLU issued a statement that reported that a FBI wiretap was "unplugged" due to a lack of payment.  The ACLU is quick to point out that this action was taken from the same telecoms that permitted the tap without the proper approvals...

From Michael German, ACLU National Security Policy Counsel: "It seems the telecoms, who are claiming they were just being "good patriots" when they allowed the government to spy on us without warrants, are more than willing to pull the plug on national security investigations when the government falls behind on its bills."

Adam "voiploser" Uzelac
DISCLAIMER: The comments here are mine only. They don't necessarily reflect intelligence, refined thoughts, or anything that the reader should take too seriously. Should the reader expect a polished thought process in the content addressed here, then a strong dose of medication should be prescribed to address that misconception.

Femtocells the Answer?

There have been some very interesting developments in the wireless world as of late.  Femtocells are basically Access Point Base Stations that permit wireless operators to extend coverage in places where “dead spots” are problematic.  This sounds like a great idea for those that have experienced the issues where a wireless phone call drops due to one moving into an area where coverage is “shady” at best – for instance an elevator or a remote location in a campus or building.  But with this concept, comes some problems that need to be resolved, like E911, Lawful Intercept and other such governmental obligations.  

First note the informal poll below from www.cellcoverege.com - this is a problem the industry wants to address.

Femtocells have been designed to use licensed and unlicensed wireless spectrum.  In the licensed scenarios, there are concerns around Interference with the already established towers that provide subscriber access.  There are limits to the number of adjacencies that mean special attention needs to be spent with regards to the placement of the femtocells. This concern stems from marketing such solutions direct to the consumer base, and this means a “willy nilly” approach to spectrum access for subscribers causes confusion with regards to E911 and Lawful Intercept requirements that mobile network operators much meet.

Though femtocells are gaining momentum as an alternative, there are concerns that first need to be addressed before an expectation of widespread use can be realized.

DISCLAIMER: The comments here are mine only. They don’t necessarily reflect intelligence, refined thoughts, or anything that the reader should take too seriously. Should the reader expect a polished thought process in the content addressed here, then a strong dose of medication should be prescribed to address that misconception.

I have long believed that the regulatory process itself has become a barrier to entry into the telecommunications market and have been a strong advocate of alternative dispute resolution processes. So I was pleased to see the news that the Canadian Radio-Television and Telecommunications Commission (“CRTC”, the Canadian equivalent of the U.S. FCC) approved an industry-sponsored telecommunications consumer complaints agency. The new agency is supposed to resolve disputes between customers and service providers involving unregulated services. Critics claim the new agency is toothless and a pawn of industry, but I think it is too early to conclude that. Let’s see how the agency performs before rushing to judgment.

The reason I mention this at all is because dispute resolution is the key to any successful policy and policy makers everywhere should consider alternative dispute resolution processes whenever they consider regulation or deregulation. Policy makers in Europe required incumbent operators to include in their standard interconnection offers arbitration clauses so that carriers would not have to bring their interconnection disputes to the regulator. Policy makers should experiment more with these tools to reduce their own backlog of case work, improve efficiency, and reduce the ability of incumbents to use the regulatory process to frustrate competitive entry.

The fallout from Comcast’s alleged traffic management practices continues with the filing of a petition by Vuze, Inc., an Internet distributor of high definition content. This petition follows on the heels of the complaint filed by a coalition of consumer groups.

The Vuze petition asks the FCC to “adopt reasonable rules that would prevent the network operators from engaging in practices that discriminate against particular Internet applications, content or technologies.” Vuze says that it does not object to “traffic management” practices, but asks the FCC to ensure that such practices meet the following conditions –

1. The network operators’ network management practices should be based on actual impact on the network, rather than targeting or disproportionately impacting specific services or technologies;

2. Network management practices should be transparent and publicly disclosed, providing consumers, content providers, applications developers, and service
providers greater certainty that their preferred technology and services are acceptable and not subject to interference on broadband networks; and

3. Network management practices should not used as a pretext for discriminating against particular types of content or services that the network operators may view as unacceptable or potential sources of competition.

While I certainly can appreciate Vuze’s interest in establishing such rules, I again have to ask, as I have throughout this entire “net neutrality” debate, why otherwise entrepreneurial people would run to the government for help with what is essentially a problem in their distribution chain? Who is advising these companies to seek redress before the FCC and why are they being listened to? Even a cursory review of the FCC’s record would show that they are a terrible forum for these types of disputes.

More broadly, why is everyone trying to invite the FCC to regulate the Internet? Has the FCC done such a great job regulating telecommunications, cable, and broadcasting that we want them now to regulate the Internet? Think through what jurisdiction over the Internet could encompass. Network operators, ISPs, content providers, equipment manufacturers, software developers, hardware manufacturers, service providers, the list is endless. By the time all is said and done, the FCC would have jurisdiction over an enormous segment of the economy. Is this what we want? If ever there was a sure way to retard our technological progress and innovation, this is it. I said it before and I will say it again, the cure (FCC regulation) in this case is likely far worse than the disease (alleged discrimination).

Parties should try working these issues out amongst themselves before asking the FCC to get involved. No where in Vuze’s petition do they say that they tried to work it out directly with Comcast. Perhaps if they did, they would find a mutually beneficial solution. Perhaps not. But that doesn’t mean “there ought to be a rule.” As I said the other day, there are a host of relationships that need to reach equilibrium before the Internet matures. It would be a shame to freeze some of these relationships in place just to grease the squeaky wheel.

The release of the proposals by the European Commission for reform of the European regulatory framework for telecom firms is surely just the beginning of what is to be a major political battle within Europe. The proposals garnering the greatest attention at the moment are the ones aimed at the forming a European-wide regulatory authority and allowing national regulators to “functionally separate” the incumbent carriers if other measures fail to introduce competition.

On the subject of the European-wide regulatory authority, I must say I think it is a bad idea and I think the U.S. experience should serve as a vivid example of the problems with such an approach. There was a time, back in the late 1980s and early 1990s when individual states in the United States began experimenting with liberalization of the telecommunications market. New York and Illinois were the early pioneers in this effort. Other states, including Maryland, Massachusetts, Florida, Michigan, California, Washington, and Connecticut, recognized that market liberalization was good for investment and local business and moved quickly to initiate rulemakings or modify their telecommunications laws to open the local telephony market to competition. By the time the Telecommunications Act of 1996 was passed by Congress, more than a dozen states had ended the local telephone monopoly and implemented measures to promote local exchange competition. At least a dozen more states (including Tennessee, Georgia, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Texas, and Colorado) were in the process of initiating changes to their laws and regulations as well so that basically half of the states were in the process of liberalization.

But once the Telecommunications Act of 1996 passed and the experiment in local competition was nationalized, what started as an orderly progression towards effective market liberalization quickly disintegrated into an orgy of regulatory gamesmanship and litigation. That the Telecommunications Act of 1996 was a mistake was made clear when the FCC issued its first “local competition order” – a nearly 800 page order that attempted establish comprehensive local competition rules, most of which were eventually overturned after years of litigation.

How the FCC could get it so wrong when nearly half the states were getting it right is a lesson on the dangers of centralization that the Europeans would do well to heed. But putting aside the substantive policy problems that a central authority would have, the situation in Europe is a bad idea for the simple reason that it is going to have the effect of freezing progress, not accelerating progress towards liberalization, as parties litigate the contours of the authority of this new pan-European regulator. National regulatory authorities hostile to the idea of a pan-European regulator will simply shut down, forcing interested parties to pursue their cause at the pan-European regulatory authority, ultimately triggering litigation by the losing party. This process could take years to sort out during which time critical issues will remain unresolved. Moreover, this process involves substantial legal and political cost and resources for the parties involved, which lends a decisive advantage to incumbent operators. Most nascent competitors lack the legal and political resources necessary to effectively pursue a legal claim over the course of several years from the national regulator, up to the pan-European authority, and eventually back to the national regulator where the matter will be resolved on some form of remand. So not only will progress be frozen pending the outcome of litigation, but the outcome is more likely to be favorable to incumbent interests since they are the only parties with the resources to see the process through to its conclusion.

My feelings about the proposal to allow national regulatory authorities to impose functional separation on incumbent operators are much more favorable from a substantive perspective, but I still have questions about the procedure. The proposal says national regulatory authorities can impose functional separation as a measure of “last resort” and only after receiving approval from the European Commission. I am not sure European Commission approval is a necessary component to this and it would probably be better if the European Commission simply clarifies the authority of national regulators in this regard.

For the moment, these are just proposals for reform. It remains to be seen whether the European Commission will adopt them, but it demonstrates once again that the Europeans are setting the example for the world on how to effectively liberalize telecommunications markets. Here in the U.S., policy makers seem unable to tackle the primary obstacles to more effective competition and are devoid of any creative ideas as to how to overcome them.

A number of bloggers have been blogging about on Google's mobile plans for the better part of the year.

Recently I blogged  as to how Google may be able to take their may ad revenue  business model into the mobile space.

Well today, Google made it very clear with their mobile alliance announcements .

The interesting part of the discussion revolves around Verizon. Specifically, Verizon may be in talks with google in joining Sprint and T-Mobile as part of Google's plans.

But is this the same Verizon that sued the FCC after the FCC adopted Google's open access  motions?

Yes it is the same Verizon.

It may be that Verizon needs to be involved and not get blindsided as they did when they choose not to support Apple's iPhone, and lost a tremendous branding opportunity.

Or, it may be that Verizon needs to be involved to make sure it's part of the disruption as mobile business models change.

Another score for the open source business model and for the public as we should see innovation at as faster velocity.

Time will tell!