Will Managed Services Become a Requirement for VoIP Mass Market Adoption?
I have been a fan of Geoffrey Moore for over 10 years and have found his book entitled “Crossing the Chasm” both inspiring and true to life.
Crossing the Chasm defines a technology adoption cycle across atypical buying patterns across a generic industry.
The early market is segmented into 2 groups – 1. Technology Enthusiasts (sometimes referred to Early Adopters) and 2. Visionaries.
While the mass market is segmented into 2 groups - 1. Pragmatists , and 2. Conservatives
With the laggards in technology acceptance are found in the last segment - Skeptics.
The key to reading this graph is that a product/service revenue is the area under the curve. Clearly the mass market represents where the money is to be made , while the early market and laggards represent a small percentage of potential revenue as it relates to the mass market.
Product and Service adoption generally follows a “product adoption process” defined by “The sequence of stages that individuals and firms go through in the process of accepting new products. The stages vary greatly in usage, but tend to include (1) becoming aware of the new product, (2) seeking information about it, (3) developing favorable attitudes toward it, (4) trying it out in some direct or indirect way, (5) finding satisfaction in the trial, and (6) adopting the product into a standing usage or repurchase pattern.”
One of my roles at Global Crossing is supporting our product teams on industry analyst meetings in both a technical and customer facing aspect on Advanced Solutions. General industry estimates suggest a small percentage of deployed IP-PBXs in the US are managed.
Do these estimates suggest a historical trend that will play out in future years?
Or do these estimates suggest production adoption cycle where the 400,000 IP-PBX deployments are representative of the early market and that the mass market will require management of these IP-PBXs?
I tend to feel the later is in play. Why?
The early market , typically , in technology adoption tends to be more technology inclined. They accept new technology with little or no documentation , work thru pioneering adoption issues and are very forgiving. While the mass market is not.
The early market will take technology risks, while the mass market will not. Global Crossing adopted VoIP within our internal operations starting in 2002, clearly a early market adopter. We had (and have) the technologists, the willingness to adopt and the patience. Today over 65% of the user base and over 90% sites use VoIP daily.
Another role of mine is supporting our sales channels in solving customer requirements that are beyond our generally available products that are considered Advanced Solutions. Within the last 3 months I have seen several large Mutli-National Companies (MNCs) move from a ‘let’s build a new VoIP platform’ to “let’s buy and use an existing , operationally proven VoIP platform’.
Connect the dots, place your bets that managed VoIP will overtake unmanaged VoIP as it becomes adopted by the mass market.








